Published: June 22, 2026 — Kickoff Wednesday 17 June at AT&T Stadium, Arlington (9pm UK / 3pm local). Reviewed by Ask Bettsy Editorial Team
Key Takeaways
- England's 2026 World Cup opener is a 2018 semi-final rematch against Croatia at AT&T Stadium, Wednesday 17 June, 9pm UK time.
- Thomas Tuchel's side arrived in the United States as the only European qualifier to concede zero goals — eight wins, 22-0 goal difference. But March friendlies against Uruguay and Japan exposed gaps a Croatia midfield led by 40-year-old Luka Modrić is built to find.
- Bookmakers price England at 1.65 (4/6) to win. Our model rates it slightly tighter — a value angle on the draw at 3.6 (13/5) is the read for those who watched the friendlies.
England begin Wednesday night the same way they ended the night of 11 July 2018: against Croatia in a tournament that defines a generation. The venue is different — AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, swapped for Luzhniki — and the stakes are smaller. The opening match of Group L is not the semi-final of the World Cup. But the names line up the same. Croatia still field Luka Modrić in midfield. England still bring Harry Kane as their captain and centre-forward. The man who scored that night for England, Kieran Trippier, retired three months ago. The man who scored the winner for Croatia, Mario Mandžukić, has been in coaching for years. Modrić, somehow, is still here. Here is Ask Bettsy's football match analysis of the 2018 rematch — and the Tuchel-era England side that has to write a different ending.
The 2018 rematch: what happened then
Eight years and four days before Wednesday's kickoff, Trippier curled a free-kick into the top corner of Danijel Subašić's goal after five minutes of the World Cup semi-final. He became the first England player to score a direct free-kick at a World Cup since David Beckham in 2006. England led 1-0. England led for sixty-three minutes. Then Ivan Perišić equalised in the 68th. Then, deep into extra time in the 109th, Mandžukić caught a sleeping England back-line and finished low past Jordan Pickford. Croatia won 2-1 (a.e.t.) and went to the final, where France beat them 4-2.
The shape of that England team — Gareth Southgate's 3-5-2, with Trippier and Ashley Young as wing-backs and Jordan Henderson screening — is gone. So is the conservative tournament identity. Tuchel has rebuilt the side around a 4-2-3-1 with Declan Rice as the deep anchor and Jude Bellingham as the number 10. The man who lost that night in 2018 in goal for England, Pickford, is the only direct survivor in tactical terms. The captain on Wednesday will be the same man who wore the armband that night: Kane.
England under Tuchel: the numbers that should worry Croatia
Tuchel's qualifying campaign was as comprehensive as any World Cup qualifier in European football's modern era. Eight matches. Eight wins. 22 goals scored. Zero conceded. England were the only qualifier from any confederation to reach the 2026 tournament without conceding a single goal in the qualification cycle. The bookmakers responded by pricing England as the third- or fourth-shortest team in the outright market, behind only Spain and France in most major books.
The qualifying record is real. The two months that followed are the asterisk. In March, England drew their pre-tournament friendlies against Uruguay and Japan, the latter producing England's first-ever defeat to an Asian side. Tuchel changed the system between the two matches and rotated personnel — but the underlying read was the same. England did not break down a disciplined, defensively organised mid-block.
Croatia at the World Cup, for a decade now, is a disciplined and defensively organised mid-block.
Croatia in 2026: Modrić at 40, Perišić in form, Dalić's system
Zlatko Dalić's side arrive in Arlington with all of their senior names available. Modrić leads the midfield at 40 years old, still playing competitive club football week-in week-out — a sentence that should be impossible at this point in any career, and yet remains true. Mateo Kovačić plays alongside him in the double pivot. Joško Gvardiol anchors the back line.
The headline form note: Ivan Perišić amassed 26 goals and assists combined for PSV Eindhoven during the 2025-26 Eredivisie season. He is 37 years old. He is still the most direct wide threat Croatia possesses. The plan, as it always is for Croatia at tournament knockout stages — and this is effectively their first knockout-quality fixture of 2026 — will be to control possession in the central thirds, force England's full-backs (Reece James and Lewis O'Reilly) to make repeat second-phase decisions, and break through Perišić and Andrej Kramarić in transition.
Croatia have made the 2018 final, the 2022 third-place play-off, and have defied tournament expectations for a full decade. Their underlying record against top-six European nations at major tournaments since 2018 is the most underrated data point in the market.
Predicted lineups
England (4-2-3-1):
- GK: Pickford
- DF: James, Stones, Guéhi, O'Reilly
- MID: Anderson, Rice
- AM: Madueke, Bellingham, Gordon
- ST: Kane
Croatia (4-2-3-1):
- GK: Livaković
- DF: Stanišić, Vušković, Ćaleta-Car, Gvardiol
- MID: Kovačić, Modrić
- AM: Pašalić, Kramarić, Perišić
- ST: Budimír
Two questions hang over the England XI. Bukayo Saka has been managing an Achilles issue and is unlikely to start, with Madueke taking the right-wing spot. The number-10 position remains a Bellingham-or-Rogers choice; Tuchel is expected to go with Bellingham. Full predicted match lineups will be updated as team news lands.
The tactical battle: Rice vs Modrić, and the four key duels
Four matchups will decide this game.
| Duel | Why it matters | |---|---| | Rice vs Modrić | Whether England's deep screen can shut Croatia's metronome out of the second phase will determine the first 30 minutes. Modrić's progressive-pass numbers in qualifying remain top-five among European midfielders. | | Madueke vs Gvardiol | If Madueke starts on the right, he has the pace to attack the space behind Gvardiol when Croatia push the left-back high. The first 20 minutes will tell us whether Tuchel has primed England to exploit this. | | Kane vs Vušković | Croatia's young centre-back Martin Vušković will face the most demanding opening match of his career. Set-piece defending, in particular against Kane, will be decisive. | | Bellingham vs the Kovačić-Modrić screen | Bellingham's between-the-lines reception is where England can win the match. Croatia's plan will be to deny him the half-turn. |
The AI prediction
Ask Bettsy's AI prediction model gives England a 56% chance to win the match, with a 24% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of Croatia winning. The model's expected scoreline is 1.4 to 0.9 in England's favour — a result our system rates as a likely 2-1 or 1-1 in execution.
The implied probability gap between bookmakers and our model is widest on the draw market. Bookmakers price the draw at 3.6 (13/5), implying around 28%. Our model rates it at 24% — close enough that the price is not an edge against. But the first-half result market shows a value: a 1-0 or 0-0 half-time scoreline pays better than our model implies, because Croatia routinely starts tournament knockouts slowly and England's friendlies suggest a methodical build-up under Tuchel.
Final Verdict
England should win this. The squad depth, the qualifying record and the bookmaker price all support a 2-1 outcome. But Croatia have spent a decade proving that they show up exactly when nobody expects them to. The 2018 rematch is the perfect script: England leads early, Croatia equalises in the second half, and the match runs deep into nerves. The smart bet is on a slow first half. The smart watch is on Modrić — 40 years old, still here, still the player who can decide a tournament knockout match.
Get the live AI verdict on every World Cup 2026 fixture: See today's match predictions on Ask Bettsy.
Frequently Asked Questions
When do England play Croatia at the 2026 World Cup?
England play Croatia at the 2026 World Cup on Wednesday 17 June at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, with a 9pm UK kickoff (3pm local). The match is the opening game for both teams in Group L, which also contains Ghana and Panama.
What was the score in England vs Croatia at the 2018 World Cup?
Croatia beat England 2-1 after extra time in the 2018 World Cup semi-final on 11 July 2018 at the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow. Kieran Trippier opened the scoring with a free-kick in the fifth minute, Ivan Perišić equalised in the 68th and Mario Mandžukić scored the winner in the 109th minute. Croatia went on to lose the final 4-2 to France.
What is the predicted England lineup vs Croatia?
Thomas Tuchel's predicted England lineup against Croatia is: Jordan Pickford in goal; a back four of Reece James, John Stones, Marc Guéhi and Lewis O'Reilly; Elliot Anderson and Declan Rice in midfield; Noni Madueke, Jude Bellingham and Anthony Gordon in attacking midfield; and Harry Kane as the lone striker. Bukayo Saka is in the squad but managing an Achilles issue, which has opened the door for Madueke.
Is Luka Modrić still playing for Croatia at the 2026 World Cup?
Yes. Luka Modrić remains Croatia's captain at the 2026 World Cup at 40 years old, still playing competitive club football week-in, week-out. Croatia coach Zlatko Dalić has built the team around Modrić's deep midfield organisation, with Mateo Kovačić alongside him in the double pivot.
Who is favourite to win England vs Croatia?
England are clear bookmakers' favourites to beat Croatia in their 2026 World Cup opener, priced at around 1.65 (4/6) to win the match outright. Croatia are roughly 6.0 (5/1) for the win, with the draw priced at 3.6 (13/5). The implied probability of an England win sits at approximately 60%, reflecting their qualifying record (eight wins from eight, 22-0 goal difference) and the gulf in current team valuations between the squads.
Who is in England's squad for the 2026 World Cup?
Thomas Tuchel's England 26-man squad is built around captain Harry Kane, with Jude Bellingham as the number 10. Jordan Pickford starts in goal. Declan Rice anchors midfield. The right-flank battle is between Bukayo Saka and Noni Madueke. England arrived in the United States as the only qualifier to complete European qualifying without conceding a single goal.
All match information and odds are as of June 16, 2026. Lineups projected from public team news and may change at kickoff. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Find support at BeGambleAware.org.